Gridiron Challenge: Week 9 previewBy Tristan H. Cockcroft We're at the theoretical midway point of the season. In fact, at the completion of Week 9's 4 p.m. ET games, literally half of the season's games will be in the books. What better time to take a look back at some of the first half's top performers? Thus, I present my first-half Gridiron Challenge team: QB1: Aaron Rodgers. The Packers traded Brett Favre this summer and haven't skipped a beat. Rodgers ranks third in the GC with 138 points, but be aware he ranked first -- and that's among players at any position -- before hitting his bye in Week 8. Unfortunately, he comes out of the bye with a road matchup at Tennessee, then gets the Bears two weeks from now. He's bound to cool off, at least to some extent. QB2: Kurt Warner. Can you believe he was a modestly priced 5.5 to begin the season? Better yet, can you believe I later let him go, during his bye week? Warner has managed four games of 19 or more GC points in his seven games this season, and has thrown for multiple scores in each of his past six contests. RB1: Clinton Portis. Can't bet against the guy leading all running backs in GC points (136), because at that position, you need consistency, durability and dependability. He has seven consecutive games with 12-plus GC points, and four 20s, although his matchup in Week 9 (versus Pittsburgh) certainly isn't favorable. We can only hope a bad week might bring Portis' price tag back to an affordable level come Week 11, when he's fresh off his bye and more likely to be at full health. RB2: Matt Forte. This one is a value pick, because Forte's price tag has resided in the low fives for much of the season, yet he ranks fifth at his position with 103 GC points despite already having sat his bye week. The Bears are being much smarter about watching his workload, and in the second half, Forte has some rather attractive matchups, including in Weeks 11 (at Green Bay), 12 (versus St. Louis) and 16 (versus Green Bay). WR1: Santana Moss. Again, tough to ignore the No. 1 point-getter at his position, as Moss is the only receiver to crack the century mark thus far. Sure, he had those two miserable games in Weeks 5-6, but for the most part, he has been pretty reliable, routinely beating up on the league's most miserable secondaries. WR2: Lee Evans. Give me consistency first and foremost when it comes to receivers, especially when they come at a price tag in the low-to-mid fives. That's Evans for you; he has four double-digit GC performances and is heating up of late, with 59 points in his past four contests. Look at his second-half schedule; I don't think there's a receiver out there with a more favorable final six weeks' worth of matchups. TE: Jason Witten. What a miserable season this has been for tight ends, which is why a currently injured player gets the nod here. Antonio Gates might have passed him for GC supremacy in Week 8, but Witten is only two points back, and he comes at a price noticeably cheaper than the Chargers superstar. K: John Carney. To think, he wasn't even the Giants' starter to begin the season! Carney is the only kicker in the GC to average better than 10 points per game thus far. At this point, can't everyone just forget the name Lawrence Tynes? D/ST: Tennessee Titans. Another player (or team) I let go despite a low locked-in price; the Titans were at 5.1 when I scooped them up. Now they're at 5.8, thanks to amassing 114 GC points, or 13 more than any other team despite already having sat their bye week. Wins matter; did you know that the Titans aren't even the No. 1 team in points in ESPN standard fantasy leagues? That honor is Tampa Bay's.
Bull market: Invest now
Chad Pennington, QB, Dolphins (5.8 price tag): Prepare for a jaw-dropping fact: Since the Dolphins' bye in Week 4, Pennington has 65 GC points, or more than 16 per game. Despite the lack of star-caliber receivers, he's making the most of the pieces he has and thriving in Miami's Wildcat offense, which, amazingly, defenses apparently have yet to decipher. Neither Denver nor Seattle, Pennington's next two opponents, has the personnel to be the first to shut it down, especially not the Broncos, who lost their only productive defensive player, Champ Bailey, to injury before the bye week. Pennington might not top the GC leaderboard in Weeks 9 or 10, but he'll crack the top 10 quarterbacks, in all likelihood. Plus, he's dirt-cheap for a guy drawing those two matchups, saving you money you can invest in elite options elsewhere. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons (5.6): If somebody offered you an ice-cream sandwich that had two delicious chocolate-chip cookies outside of, say, a generic, bland vanilla, would you reject it? That is -- in a sense -- Turner's schedule the next three weeks, with Oakland and Denver representing those soft, delectable cookies (in Weeks 9 and 11), and New Orleans the vanilla. But there's nothing wrong with vanilla or facing the Saints, especially since they've surrendered 253 rushing yards combined the past two weeks. Turner tends to go off -- and I mean 20-plus-point efforts -- against woeful run defenses such as the No. 26 Raiders' and No. 30 Broncos'. And against a team such as the Saints, there's no reason he can't land you a total in the teens. Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (6.9): Maybe I regret letting him go during his bye; I had him locked in at 5.5 at the time, but I continue to stress you cannot waste a roster slot no matter the circumstance. It's just the way I play; I think you can replace lost bargains, but you cannot replace lost points. What do I regret more than cutting him? Not buying in on Warner a week ago, when he was priced at 6.7. Hey, it's only a 0.2 bump, I suppose. Still, for as long as he's a sub-seven-priced quarterback, he's an attractive play for, at the bare minimum, these next three weeks. Check out the matchups: He heads to St. Louis, where he has thrown four touchdowns in two career games as a visiting player; then his team hosts San Francisco, against whom he has three 300-yard passing games in their past five meetings; then he visits Seattle, where he amassed 337 yards and three scores passing in Week 14 of last season. All those pass defenses rank in the league's bottom half, and Warner is suddenly passing a ton -- just like last season -- averaging 45 throws in his past four contests. That's a ton of opportunities.
One-week ponies: Week 9
Donnie Avery, WR, Rams (ARI, 4.5 price tag): Here's your money-saving choice of the week: the red-hot Avery, owner of 218 yards and two touchdowns receiving the past two weeks combined. He has developed into a viable deep threat -- in spite of his draft-day critics -- and he'll be facing a defense that has allowed an average of 257 yards and three touchdowns through the air in its past four games. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos (MIA, 6.7): Miami's defensive weakness is in the secondary -- cornerback Andre Goodman and strong safety Yeremiah Bell have underperformed no matter your measure -- and that presents a standout matchup for Denver's skilled starting receivers. It also plays right into Cutler's hands; he'll have his pick of either Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal open on the bulk of his throws. Miami-Denver has all the makings of a shootout, and that suits Cutler just fine. Matt Forte, RB, Bears (DET, 5.9): The 36 rushing yards he amassed in these teams' Week 5 meeting might underwhelm you, but understand that he had both a rushing and receiving touchdown, and was fine in the GC, with 17 points. The experience of that game should do Forte some good, as should the fact that he's back home for the rematch. Detroit's defense ranks 31st against the run; Chicago's offense will romp. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers (@KC, 5.2): How bad are the Chiefs at defending the run? Consider that, besides ranking dead last in yards per game (196.9), touchdowns (14) and 20-plus-yard runs allowed (15), they rank last by more than 20 percent over the No. 31 team in each category. Graham, having garnered only 50.2 percent of his team's rushing attempts all season, will get most of them in Week 9 with Warrick Dunn's back hurting (he missed Wednesday's practice). Graham is the 24th-highest-priced running back, but the matchup says he'll be a top-10 performer in the GC. Devin Hester, WR, Bears (DET, 3.9): Talk that the Bears might begin adopting the Wildcat offense, with Hester the one taking direct snaps, must put him in the intriguing-sleeper category for this week. He's the kind of player who can beat in you in so many different ways: With his legs, catching passes, on returns Detroit lacks the personnel to stop a multi-talented player like this; there's a huge amount of upside here. Greg Olsen, TE, Bears (DET, 3.9): Sensing a theme this week? Yes, I'm rather pro-Bears in Week 9, and I recommend you get yourself one (or four). In Olsen's case, he headed into the bye with 16 receptions for 237 yards and two touchdowns in his past four games; Desmond Clark, by comparison, had 11-130-0 numbers. His role is ramping up in the Chicago offense, and the matchup suits him nicely. Very nicely. Kyle Orton, QB, Bears (DET, 5.9): The last time these teams battled, Orton went off for 334 passing yards, two scores and no turnovers, and in two games since, he has totaled 34 GC points, quite start-worthy. Meanwhile, the Lions have served up 815 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in three games since taking on Orton's Bears, despite facing only one quarterback with more full-season points than Orton -- Matt Schaub. This might not feel like a strong pick, but make no mistake, it is.
No chance they'll be in my Week 9 lineup
Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell, Donald Driver, Ryan Grant, Santonio Holmes, Chad Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Minnesota Vikings defense/special teams, Terrell Owens, Ben Roethlisberger, Steve Slaton, Kolby Smith, Roy E. Williams, Jason Witten.
Tristan's Week 9 lineup
Total points: 902. Despite my affinity for the Bears this week, I did squeeze only one into my lineup: their defense/special teams. Part of that, though, was going cheaper than expected at running back. My Week 9 money is invested mostly in the two quarterbacks, two wide receivers and the defense. Surprisingly enough, I look at my running backs' matchups and won't be at all surprised if they top my skill-position players in points.
Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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